March Madness is one of the best times of the year to be a basketball fan. To be specific, it’s the best time of year to be a basketball fan. This stretch of the calendar is amazing for all basketball enjoyers—but not quite as amazing for those who prefer the professional game. 

In stark contrast to college basketball, March is when the NBA begins to slow down. Teams are preparing for the rapidly approaching postseason. For contenders, this means lightening the load on superstar players and maybe tapering the intensity a bit to conserve energy for the games that matter. For the teams on the other end of the spectrum, the Ides of March are about when tanking begins in earnest. With fewer than a month’s worth of games remaining and no shot at contention, these organizations are incentivized to lose as much as possible in order to increase their lottery odds and a shot at an elite prospect in the NBA draft. 

In most years that means a good chunk of the league becomes irrelevant on a night-to-night basis and the overall state of play is much less interesting. However! This is one of the years where that is not the case, because there’s a can’t-miss pot of gold at the end of the tanking rainbow—Cooper Flagg. 

Flagg has been a superstar for the Duke Blue Devils as a freshman this season. He was touted as a generational prospect coming in and spent the subsequent months proving that was not an exaggeration. During the Blue Devils’ regular season, he averaged 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game as a do-it-all two-way forward who clearly has yet to scrape the ceiling of his potential. Flagg sprained his ankle in the first round of the ACC tournament, which was a big-time bummer, but is expected to shine in NCAA tournament play for No. 1-seeded Duke. 

Even if he does not, NBA teams at the bottom of this season’s standings are desperate to land the young prospect. As a result, they will go to great lengths to ensure they have the best chance possible at winning the NBA draft lottery—which means there will be a of losing in the next four weeks for those teams. The three worst teams in the league get the highest percent chance of winning the lottery at 14%, and the odds decrease with each slot down to the 14th-worst team, which has a 0.5% chance of winning the lottery. 

As the race to capture the Flagg really gets going, let’s break down the race to the bottom and the five teams that seem most likely to win the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. 

Utah Jazz

Record entering Friday: 16–54
Current No. 1 pick odds: 14%

The Jazz have been tanking for years for this specific instance—the opportunity to draft a player capable of turning the entire franchise around and gifting the organization a new direction. Utah cleaned house and traded away a contending core in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert for this exact purpose. It would be devastating if the Jazz were to miss out on Flagg. 

Recent decision-making suggests Utah recognizes this as well as anybody and has zero interest in allowing that to happen. The Jazz just snapped a 10-game losing streak Wednesday night, going over three weeks without a W. The NBA feels the franchise was egregious enough in its losing that the Jazz were fined $100,000 after 2023 All-Star Lauri Markkanen missed nine games with “back pain.” While Markkanen will see the floor regularly in the last part of the season now that the NBA has its eyes on the situation, he hasn’t topped 30 minutes in a game since coming back on March 12 and it would be a surprise to see him do so anytime soon. 

With 12 games left and the second-hardest remaining strength of schedule (via Tankathon), Utah is on the fast track to securing one of the three worst records in the league—and with it, the greatest possible chance at landing Flagg. 

Washington Wizards

Record entering Friday: 15–53
Current No. 1 pick odds: 14%

The Jazz were only able to break their double-digit losing streak because the Wizards came to town. 

One of the few teams capable of matching the sheer awfulness of Utah’s on-court product, Washington has been brutal to watch as the franchise continues to bottom out following the Bradley Beal trade in 2023. The Wizards are actually somewhat interesting in theory, with 2024 No. 2 overall draft pick Alex Sarr teaming up with intriguing young Frenchman Bilal Coulibaly to make a fascinating, if far from certain, core. But the inexperience and relative lack of talent is apparent as soon as the ball is tipped, which surprisingly hasn’t changed over the last few months despite the deadline additions of Marcus Smart and Khris Middleton. 

It hasn’t been a lost season with the Wizards. The development of their young players has come along at an acceptable pace, with Coulibaly continuing on his trajectory to becoming a do-everything wing and Sarr showing flashes of the scoring ability. Like the Jazz, this was all by design. Washington is still searching for a young star to lead the team into a new era and was willing to commit to playing youthful lineups to get there, entering the season with the sixth-youngest roster in the NBA.

Washington currently owns the title of worst record in the league but perhaps not for long. The Wizards rank 23rd in strength of schedule over the rest of the season, with seven of their final 13 games coming against fellow lottery-bound squads. They’ve also established some positive momentum of late, winning five of their last 10. But they won’t damage their odds to land the top pick unless they rip off a huge win streak to end the season—which feels unlikely given the Wizards haven’t won more than three games in a row all season.

Charlotte Hornets

Record entering Friday: 18–51
Current No. 1 pick odds: 14%

The last of the three teams who currently boast the best odds to land the top pick, the Hornets are different from the Jazz and Wizards in that they didn’t really intend to be here. Charlotte presumably has its franchise star already in LaMelo Ball and a potential running mate in Brandon Miller, the 2023 No. 2 pick. But Ball, who has already signed a lucrative contract extension, has spent all season either hurt or putting up empty stats. Miller went down for the year with a torn wrist ligament in the early months of the season. Which leaves the Hornets’ roster a hodgepodge of mid-to-late lottery picks struggling to find their way and a random assortment of veterans brought in via trade in deals the team made for other assets. 

The result? Another season spent in the very bottom of the standings. The Hornets have failed to hit the 30-win mark in two straight seasons, and this season should mark a third. Ball is amazing to watch when he’s on the court, but he hasn’t moved the needle as far as winning goes. Broadly speaking, it’s unclear what the team has to do in order to win each night. It’s clear there’s something missing and that may have been the case even absent the injuries. Landing Flagg would be the most exciting development for Charlotte since drafting Kemba Walker and give the franchise some very much-needed juice. 

The Hornets are at more of a risk of falling out of the top three lottery spots than the two above entries due to a slightly better record and the presence of Ball, but a tough remaining schedule featuring three games against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics combined should keep them with a 14% chance to land the top spot. 

New Orleans Pelicans

Record entering Friday: 19–51
Current No. 1 pick odds: 12.5%

If the Hornets didn’t intend to be here, the Pelicans did not intend to be here. This was supposed to be the season they put together a logical roster around Zion Williamson and let him morph into the game-changing superstar he’s shown flashes of. Unfortunately, Williamson’s injury issues popped up again. Which wasn’t necessarily shocking. What shocking was the absurd rash of injuries that hit the rest of the roster. Dejounte Murray, acquired over the offseason to create a more well-rounded backcourt with CJ McCollum, played only 31 games and went down for the season in February. Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones both suffered season-ending injuries. Brandon Ingram played 18 games in the first half of the season before getting traded. 

It was a Murphy’s Law–type season in New Orleans—but this could be the Pelicans’ reward. The Pelicans are buried at the bottom of the West standings with little hope to crawl out with the few games remaining. Getting Flagg, or even another top lottery pick, gives the franchise significant flexibility going forward and ensures their long-term success is not tied to Williamson’s fragile body. It is unfortunate the season played out like this, but New Orleans could very well earn a boon for its struggles. 

On the flip side, though, the Pelicans are at high risk of decreasing their lottery odds. They have the 12th-hardest schedule remaining, but Williamson has been red hot since finally returning from injury. He has averaged 25.3 points per game on 58.4% shooting from the floor in his last eight appearances. The Pelicans took down the streaking Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday night. They would have to make up a four-game deficit to surpass the Philadelphia 76ers for the fifth-worst record and drop their No. 1 pick odds to below 10%. Not terribly likely, but with Williamson showing out, it isn’t impossible, either. 

Philadelphia 76ers

Record entering Friday: 23–46
Current No. 1 pick odds: 9%

Speaking of teams suffering through an everything-goes-wrong season, only a top lottery pick could possibly salvage this Sixers season. And, even with this record, it’s no sure thing. 

The Sixers owe their first-round pick for this season to Oklahoma City if it falls outside the top six. They currently boast the fifth-best odds to win the lottery and a 39.9% chance at a top-four pick. This sets up quite the feast-or-famine situation for Philly on lottery night, where it could either end up with a top selection in a talented draft or not have a pick at all. 

The organization is hoping the poor injury luck the team has suffered will push it toward a happy ending. Paul George was recently declared out for the season, and Joel Embiid is unlikely to suit up again, having last played on Feb. 22. Tyrese Maxey hasn’t played in the last nine games. Philly has lost eight of the last 10 games. It seems like the Sixers have all the momentum in the world to finish with a bottom-five record and an excellent chance at keeping their first-round draft pick, along with a pretty decent shot (relatively speaking) at landing Flagg. 

The test comes in this last stretch of games. Philadelphia will play the third-easiest schedule out of the entire NBA over the rest of the year. Even if Maxey is kept out by his nagging injuries, it will be tough to lose at the rate required to keep their current, high lottery odds. The Sixers are desperately hoping they do—because the alternative is emerging from a truly disastrous season with nothing to show for it. With 23 wins already the best odds are out of the question at this point, but they’d settle for any pick in the top six even if Flagg is the dream.